The Ipsos/U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index declined from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, with fewer small businesses planning to hire or invest over the next year as inflation concerns have grown to become the top challenge. Meanwhile, 61% of Americans believe a recession is likely within the next 12 months, with notable partisan differences in expectations.

Source: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/economy-key-insights-data-and-solutions-inflation-recession-consumer-confidence-and-more