Results: Odds of Trump finishing his term.
Odds of Finishing: Major bookmakers in early 2026 showed odds of roughly 2/5 to 3/10 for Trump to finish his term, which translates to a roughly 65% to 77% implied probability.
Odds of Leaving Early: The likelihood of Trump leaving office before the end of his term has been estimated between 27% and 40% in early 2026, representing a shift from when it was considered a near-certainty.
1.
1.
Do you think Trump will finish his term? Yes
54%
•
971 votes
No
46%
•
829 votes
2.
2.
Do you think Trump health will allow him to continue past 2026? Yes
52%
•
933 votes
No
48%
•
867 votes
3.
3.
Did you know you can go on a site called Kalshi to bet real money on how much longer he lasts as President?
Yes
14%
•
256 votes
No
86%
•
1544 votes
Comments